Each of the NBA Rivals Week primetime games has been a thriller and the Friday night slate, though short, features two more “rivalry games” on NBA TV.
In the first game of tonight’s doubleheader, we get a rematch of last year’s first-round Western Conference series: Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves (7:30 p.m. ET). At the end of the game, it’s a rematch of the 2019 NBA Finals: Raptors vs. Warriors (10 p.m. ET).
Our analysts have targeted these two matches and have four best bets for these matches. Read on for their expert picks and predictions for Friday.
NBA odds and picks
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Andrew O’Connor-Watts: These are two teams moving in opposite directions and we get the team with the upward trajectory as the home dog. Minnesota has been thriving at Target Center lately. They are 10-5, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.
Then we have the Grizzlies, who find themselves at the end of a West Coast trip in which they failed to record a win. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games and are one of the worst teams on the road this season (9-14-2 ATS). Tonight marks the fifth game in eight days for Memphis and Ja Morant and Desmond Bane (debatable) have played more minutes than their season averages in that span.
Rudy Gobert is questionable for Minnesota with right groin pain, but he’s played the last two games. Even though he sits, the Timberwolves have weathered the storm with ease in his absence. Thanks to quality minutes from their backup center, Naz Reid, Minnesota is 6-3 without Gobert and 5-1 at home.
These teams have shared the previous two meetings this season, with each side winning and covering at home. Add to that some revenge for the Timberwolves after last season’s early playoff exit and that’s enough for me to love Wolves to cover anything as an underdog. I also added half a unit on the moneyline.
Toronto Raptors vs. Golden State Warriors
Chris Baker: It’s a complete shift in several different ways on both sides of the ball and if you want to dive deeper, check out my full game preview.
Zoom out and focus on where the Raptors are right now. They are currently 22-27 and three games away from the play-ins. They have trade rumors swirling around virtually their entire starting five now that Fred Vanvleet is set to sign with Rich Paul’s Klutch agency.
This team is in complete disarray in my opinion and I think the front office knows deep down that they are not ready to compete for anything meaningful with this current roster build.
Even if the Raptors were fully motivated and organizationally sound, I would still approximate that to -6.5 or -7 given all the Warriors edges on both sides of the ball. That’s not the case though, and I expect the Warriors to dominate this Raptors team from start to finish. Trust the Warriors to make a statement and play down to -6.5.
Toronto Raptors vs. Golden State Warriors
Joe Dellera: The Warriors host the Raptors today in the Bay and the Warriors have been dominant at home against the Raptors who have struggled tremendously on the road.
At home, the Warriors are 18-6 with a +7.5 point differential to the Raptors on the road who are 7-15 with a -2 point differential. While they didn’t have to travel very far from Wednesday’s game in Sacramento, this game with the Warriors presents different issues.
The Warriors should be able to dictate the pace of this game and get the shots they want. The Raptors allow three-point attempts at one of the highest rates in the league and their opponents are shooting 37.8% from 3 points – not ideal when playing against the Warriors who are shooting 38.5% from of 3 points, the fourth best mark in the league.
This game is shaping up well for the Warriors’ 3-point shooters, but I especially like Jordan Poole there, and his PRA line is at 29.5. He’s topped that number in eight of his last 10 games and earlier this season recorded 50 PRAs against the Raptors in December.
As for the correlation, Poole broke that line in Warriors wins. In the Warriors’ last 10 wins, he’s exceeded that number in all 10 of them. If you turn them into SGP at DraftKings, you can get +170, which I think is worth a partial unit.
I expect the Poole to be open today and will take his PRA with the SGP.
Toronto Raptors vs. Golden State Warriors
Austin Wang: The Warriors are playing at the fastest pace in the league, and we saw a few smaller rosters (Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green) in their last game against the Grizzlies with Andrew Wiggins out. He’s questionable for Friday’s game, so we might revisit the same strategy.
The Warriors are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the league (second in 3-point rate, fourth in 3-point percentage), while the Raptors are 22nd in 3-point rate, 27th in 3-point percentage authorized. They are 27-19-2 above the season (58.7%) and 16-8-1 above teams playing at a slower pace than the league average, according to the SDQL from Gimme The Dog.
The Raptors also play a few small formations and they tend to up their pace with fast-paced opponents. The Raptors are 14-9 against teams playing at a faster pace than the league average, according to SDQL. They are third in the league in quick break points. Additionally, they are first in the league in turnover and the Warriors are 29th in turnover percentage in the league.
I see a quick and high scoring game between these two teams. The Raptors tend to slow play in the second half, so the angle I’m specifically targeting is most on the first half total, where both teams excelled. In their previous 10 games, the Warriors are 6-3-1 and the Raptors are 7-2-1 over in the first half.
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